Global Poverty

We have posted in the past on the fact that global poverty is falling.  This work helps quantize it rather well.  This also tells us that the ideological debate is long over.  Everyone knows what needs to be done and it looks as if progress is taking place almost everywhere.  At worst we are waiting for a few bad actors to get out of the way.

 

The big changes took place in south Asia and Latin America and accounted for most change.  In fairness, the next big wave of economic improvement will be visibly in Africa.  The cell phone is empowering the people hugely.

 

The remaining laggards are mostly in the Islamic Middle East but not the Islamic Far East.  They are determined to proceed slowly it seems.

 

It really informs us just how massively the world has changed in just the past thirty five years.  1970 was the end of the recovery stroke from the Second World War.  The next decade saw consolidation and minor liberalization.  The last twenty five years saw the adoption of modern methods by both China first and then India and Brazil with many others getting on board along the way.

 

China has now entered consolidation and India will also begin consolidation in another decade.  That does not mean a lack of growth so much as that everyone who is able to actively participate is.  Their strength will strongly accelerate Africa’s response.

 

The hard thing to get used to is that the US economy is continuing to fade proportionally and to have less an less impact on the global economy.  When you have spent your entire life checking US numbers as the present best case, you have a habit to break.  China is now our largest car maker having grown fifty percent this past year.  Those percentage jumps are still hard to accept.  Yet the reality is there while we drift.

 

 

 

Global Poverty Progress - Model Income Past, Present and Future

January 22,2010

http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/01/global-poverty-progress-model-income.html

 

There is an analysis of the model income of the world from 1970 and 2006. Model income is the level of income that is most common in the world. The graphs show on the left vertical the population with a particular income level and the bottom horizontal shows the income level. In 1970 about 50 million people had $500 of income per year. In 2006, About 100 million had $5000 of income per year.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip7h7N5Gl7RkyLyDcvSMwwo4jEYoAtfD5PYCJFX7E5uUHDgHEJwlLkftN5fkJ8tPYTYZCjpb2LJO4dkQTx7da6ovAHtri2IqQGOLXQ6Ne5jySX9TpwFBto2NwZk-6WCEGcpNJuSymQfIGG/s400/worldincome19702006.jpg

World poverty is falling. Between 1970 and 2006, the global poverty rate has been cut by nearly three quarters. The percentage of the world population living on less than $1 a day (in PPP-adjusted 2000 dollars) went from 26.8% in 1970 to 5.4% in 2006. 1970 to 2006, poverty fell by 86% in South Asia, 73% in Latin America, 39% in the Middle East, and 20% in Africa.

An Attempt to Project Foreward 40 Years on Model Income

Goldmans Sachs had a forecast of GDP for the top 22 countries until 2050 and this was used to approximate world GDP growth. Using wikipedia estimates of future population the mean average GDP per capita was calculated. This was used to approximate the shift in modal income into the future. 

There are several ways that this method could be off. 

1) The Goldman Sachs estimates could be wrong. In particular China's GDP is projected by some to be 20% of Goldmans estimate and some have it 200% of Goldman Sachs. Disruptive technology such as molecular nanotechnology, super robotics, cheap nuclear fusion or AGI could arrive and alter the economic picture.

2) The World GDP may not track proportionally with the GDP of the top 22.

3) The modal income may not shift exactly in proportion to the mean income.

4) The population projection could be off

The biggest source of error is the first and the degree of possible error shrinks for the factors listed.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfXfd2VU-JR9k4tTsNtL0PXAGNLtasVeTDYF5hMi__VaysnWvGPHSTTZfHxLMkVcFikhp3RmYrxdLxf7huUo6wb9jycnxGlDezXs8s36jzIaqbGNjpM5fhy-kjMSGKxgm096D873O5wDx1/s640/worldgdpGoldman2050.jpg

Projected Modal Income is on the last line of the table.

Giant Carp Threaten Great Lakes

It is a pretty good bet that the carp will be in the Great Lakes, if not already, very soon.  My attitude is to get over it.  We eat catfish and I suspect carp is a lot better.  Besides it is a staple in China.  Obviously they have been unable to fish them out either.

If anything we need to investigate what else may be added to the mix to enhance production and perhaps also give other species a chance.

The Great Lakes can produce thousands of tons of carp, all of which will have a ready market.

I have recently observed that the lakes of the boreal forest are also natural pens for the fresh water production of Coho.  Escapement will end up in the Arctic or the Great Lakes.

In time, these will be the two greatest single commercial fisheries on earth likely employing millions.

Giant, leaping Asian carp threaten US Great Lakes

by Staff Writers

Chicago (AFP) Jan 19, 2010

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Giant_leaping_Asian_carp_threaten_US_Great_Lakes_999.html

Asian carp were originally imported to the southern United States in the 1970s to help keep retention ponds clean at fish farms and waste water treatment plants. Heavy flooding helped them escape into the Mississippi in the 1990's and they have since migrated into the Missouri and Illinois rivers. Should they make it into Lake Michigan in large numbers it would be extremely difficult to stop their spread throughout the five interconnected Great Lakes and up into the St. Lawrence Seaway.

Huge Asian carp, which act like "aquatic vacuum cleaners" and leap into the air when spooked by motorboats, may have invaded the US Great Lakes despite a massive effort to block them, officials said Tuesday.

Researchers analyzing water samples have discovered fragments of Asian carp DNA in Lake Michigan, although there is still no evidence that that fast-breeding fish have breached electric barriers set up along Chicago-area waterways.

"Clearly this is not good news," said Major General John Peabody, commanding general of the US Army Corps of Engineers' Great Lakes and Ohio River division.

The Corps is one of a host of state and federal agencies working to stop the spread of the voracious carp which can grow up to seven feet long (2.1 meters) and weigh 150 pounds (68 kilos).

Federal officials have warned that Asian carp - which have no natural predators - could have a "devastating effect on the Great Lakes ecosystem and a significant economic impact" on the seven-billion-dollar sport and commercial fishing industry.

"From what we have seen in other parts of the country, Asian carp could out-compete our native, sport and commercial fish in southern Lake Michigan," Charlie Wooley, deputy regional director of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), said in a statement.

"We call them an aquatic vacuum cleaner because they filter important food resources out of the water and turn it into carp biomass."

It's possible that the DNA discovered in two different samples could come from a decomposed carp which was carried through the electric barriers, officials said.

Or it could come from eggs that were transported on the belly of a bird. Another possibility is that flooding may have allowed the carp may to swim around the barriers.

"The short answer is we just don't know," said FWS spokeswoman Ashley Spratt.

"We have not actually seen live carp above the barrier," she told AFP. "The information we currently have does not suggest they're there in sustainable populations."

Teams will set out on boats as soon as weather allows to search the lake for signs of live carp, and the regional coordinating committee will accelerate its efforts to block their spread, she said.

Officials are considering a number of options including another mass kill through poisoning, sterilizing males to slow breeding, building new electrical barriers and researching other "biological controls."

The test results were released hours after the fight to block the carp was dealt a blow by the US Supreme Court, which refused to force the closure of the Chicago shipping canal system as an emergency measure to stop the invasion.

"The motion of Michigan for preliminary injunction is denied," the Supreme Court wrote in a single line ruling.

Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox called upon President Barack Obama to use his executive powers to close the locks and said he hoped the Supreme Court would consider the issue more carefully in another pending case.

"I am extremely disappointed the Supreme Court did not push the pause button on this crisis until an effective plan is in place," Cox said in a statement.

"While the injunction would have been an extraordinary step by the court, Michigan and the other Great Lakes states are facing an extraordinary crisis that could forever alter the lakes, permanently killing thousands of jobs at a time when families can least afford it.

Asian carp were originally imported to the southern United States in the 1970s to help keep retention ponds clean at fish farms and waste water treatment plants.

Heavy flooding helped them escape into the Mississippi in the 1990's and they have since migrated into the Missouri and Illinois rivers.

Should they make it into Lake Michigan in large numbers it would be extremely difficult to stop their spread throughout the five interconnected Great Lakes and up into the St. Lawrence Seaway.

A Carp Recipe

Ingredients

2 pounds carp fillets

1 cup milk

1 cup biscuit mix or pancake mix

2 teaspoonss 

salt

lemon wedges

  paration

Remove the skin of the carp and take out all the brownish-redish-colored part of the meat, the "mud vein"; discard.

Chunk up the rest of the carp fillets. Place fillet pieces in a shallow dish. Pour the milk over them and let it stand for half an hour, turning the fillets over once during that time.  Stir the

salt into the biscuit mix. 

Take fillets out of the milk and pat them into the biscuit mix, covering both sides. Fry fillets in deep fryer or in medium hot oil in fry-pan for 5 - 10 minutes until cooked through and browned on both sides. Use tongs or slotted spoon to turn them. 

Drain on paper towels. Serve with lemon wedges if available. 

Serves 4-6